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Extreme weather events perturb ecosystems and increasingly threaten biodiversity1. Ecologists emphasize the need to forecast and mitigate the impacts of these events, which requires knowledge of how risk is distributed among species and environments. However, the scale and unpredictability of extreme events complicate risk assessment1–4—especially for large animals (megafauna), which are ecologically important and disproportionately threatened but are wide-ranging and difficult to monitor5. Traits such as body size, dispersal ability and habitat affiliation are hypothesized to determine the vulnerability of animals to natural hazards1,6,7. Yet it has rarely been possible to test these hypotheses or, more generally, to link the short-term and long-term ecological effects of weather-related disturbance8,9. Here we show how large herbivores and carnivores in Mozambique responded to Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai, the deadliest storm on record in Africa, across scales ranging from individual decisions in the hours after landfall to changes in community composition nearly 2 years later. Animals responded behaviourally to rising floodwaters by moving upslope and shifting their diets. Body size and habitat association independently predicted population-level impacts: five of the smallest and most lowland-affiliated herbivore species declined by an average of 28% in the 20 months after landfall, while four of the largest and most upland-affiliated species increased by an average of 26%. We attribute the sensitivity of small-bodied species to their limited mobility and physiological constraints, which restricted their ability to avoid the flood and endure subsequent reductions in the quantity and quality of food. Our results identify general traits that govern animal responses to severe weather, which may help to inform wildlife conservation in a volatile climate. 

The world’s largest carnivores are declining and now occupy mere fractions of their historical ranges. Theory predicts that when apex predators disappear, large herbivores should become less fearful, occupy new habitats, and modify those habitats by eating new food plants. Yet experimental support for this prediction has been difficult to obtain in large-mammal systems. Following the extirpation of leopards and African wild dogs from Mozambique’s Gorongosa National Park, forest-dwelling antelopes (bushbuck, Tragelaphus sylvaticus ) expanded into treeless floodplains, where they consumed novel diets and suppressed a common food plant (waterwort, Bergia mossambicensis ). By experimentally simulating predation risk, we demonstrate that this behavior was reversible. Thus, whereas anthropogenic predator extinction disrupted a trophic cascade by enabling rapid differentiation of prey behavior, carnivore restoration may just as rapidly reestablish that cascade. 

Abstract Crop raiding by wildlife poses major threats to both wildlife conservation and human well‐being in agroecosystems worldwide. These threats are particularly acute in many parts of Africa, where crop raiders include globally threatened megafauna such as elephants, and where smallholder agriculture is a primary source of human livelihood. One framework for understanding herbivore feeding behaviour, the forage‐maturation hypothesis, predicts that herbivores should align their movements with intermediate forage biomass (i.e., peak green‐up); this phenomenon is known as “surfing the green wave.” Crop‐raiding elephants, however, often consume not just foliage, but also fruits and tubers (e.g., maize and potatoes), which generally mature after seasonal peaks in photosynthetic activity. Thus, although elephants have been reported to surf the green wave in natural habitats, they may utilize a different strategy in cultivated landscapes by selecting crops that are “browning down.”We sought to understand the factors that underpin movement of elephants into agricultural landscapes.In Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park, we used movement data from GPS‐collared elephants, together with precipitation records, remotely sensed estimates of landscape greenness (NDVI), DNA‐based diet analysis, measurements of plant nutritional quality and survey‐based metrics of crop availability to understand spatiotemporal variation in elephant crop‐raiding behaviour.Elephants tracked peak NDVI while foraging inside the Park. During the dry season, however, when NDVI within the Park declined and availability of mature crops was high, crop raiding increased dramatically, and elephants consistently selected crop plants that were browning down while foraging in cultivated landscapes. Crops contained significantly higher digestible energy than wild food plants, but comparable (and sometimes lower) levels of digestible protein, suggesting that this foraging strategy maximized energy rather than protein intake.Our study is the first to combine GPS tracking data with high‐resolution diet analysis and community‐based reporting of crop availability to reveal fine‐scale plasticity in foraging behaviour of elephants at the human–wildlife interface. Our results extend the forage‐maturation hypothesis by showing that elephants surf waves of plant brown‐down in cultivated landscapes. These findings can aid efforts to reduce human–elephant conflict by enabling wildlife managers to prioritize mitigation actions in time and space with limited resources. 

Abstract Major disturbances can temporarily remove factors that otherwise constrain population abundance and distribution. During such windows of relaxed top‐down and/or bottom‐up control, ungulate populations can grow rapidly, eventually leading to resource depletion and density‐dependent expansion into less‐preferred habitats. Although many studies have explored the demographic outcomes and ecological impacts of these processes, fewer have examined the individual‐level mechanisms by which they occur. We investigated these mechanisms in Gorongosa National Park, where the Mozambican Civil War devastated large‐mammal populations between 1977 and 1992. Gorongosa’s recovery has been marked by proliferation of waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus), an historically marginal 200‐kg antelope species, which is now roughly 20‐fold more abundant than before the war. We show that after years of unrestricted population growth, waterbuck have depleted food availability in their historically preferred floodplain habitat and have increasingly expanded into historically avoided savanna habitat. This expansion was demographically skewed: mixed‐sex groups of prime‐age individuals remained more common in the floodplain, while bachelors, loners, and subadults populated the savanna. By coupling DNA metabarcoding and forage analysis, we show that waterbuck in these two habitats ate radically different diets, which were more digestible and protein‐rich in the floodplain than in savanna; thus, although individuals in both habitats achieved positive net energy balance, energetic performance was higher in the floodplain. Analysis of daily activity patterns from high‐resolution GPS‐telemetry, accelerometry, and animal‐borne video revealed that savanna waterbuck spent less time eating, perhaps to accommodate their tougher, lower‐quality diets. Waterbuck in savanna also had more ectoparasites than those in the floodplain. Thus, plasticity in foraging behavior and diet selection enabled savanna waterbuck to tolerate the costs of density‐dependent spillover, at least in the short term; however, the already poorer energetic performance of these individuals implies that savanna occupancy may become prohibitively costly as heterospecific competitors and predators continue to recover in Gorongosa. Our results suggest that behavior can provide a leading indicator of the onset of density‐dependent limitation and the likelihood of subsequent population decline, but that reliable inference hinges on understanding the mechanistic basis of observed behavioral shifts.